The Assassinated Press
New Premises in Iraq Depend on Prospects for Withdrawal Being Viewed through the Politics of Oil.
“If It Weren’t for the Oil, We Could Pull that ‘Peace with Honor Shit Again.”
“Impeaching Dick Cheney Would Be Like Nailing Al Capone for Income Tax Evasion or Richard Nixon for Watergate.”
Ockham's Razor Points to Oil.
By HENRY A. KISSMYASSINGER
The Assassinated Press
July 31, 2008
The U.S. presidential campaign has been so long and so tedious that it seems to operate out of the executive office building, oblivious to political openings that should alter its premises much the way Dick Nixon and I planted the red, white and blue canard, “Piece With Honor” for our secret cut and run policy in Vietnam. A striking example of political advantages to cut and run is the debate over withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.
The difference is oil. Vietnam proper had little except for a few off shore drilling leases. We dropped billions upon billions of bomb tonnage on Southeast Asia and the military industrial complex was as fat as a tick and filled with the same substance that covered hands of the administration I served.
Senator McCain was shot down by the little girl holding her bolt action rifle currently portrayed in his campaign ads. One of the five U.S. jets ace ass McCain lost is the background.
But this situation is different and calls for some genuinely twisty logic. Since oil is the focus all else is bullshit meant to disguise that fact. Things get pretty fucked up. For example, if the situation has improved on the ground in Iraq, shouldn’t U.S. troops come home to Fort Mortgageville, USA, since their sole purpose according to the Cheney administration was to hammer Iraq into a democracy? And if they don’t come home, isn’t that an indication that either Iraq is not more secure like the administration claims or that there is a lot of unfinished business like permanent bases to protect Dick Cheney’s oil.
Over the past year, many have proposed setting a deadline for withdrawal which makes sense unless you admit the surge isn’t working. Proponents, ignoring the oil, have argued that a date certain would compel the Iraqi government to accelerate the policy of reconciliation; would speed the end of the war; and would enable the United States to concentrate its efforts on more strategically important regions, such as Afghanistan. Above all, they acknowledge, the war is lost, and withdrawal would represent the least costly way to deal with the debacle unless the oil is holding the administration back.
Politically, these premises have been overtaken by events much in the same way I twisted such events keep U.S. forces in Southeast Asia far longer than purposeful. Almost all political observers agree that major progress has been made on all three fronts of the Iraq war: Al-Qaeda, the Sunni jihadist force recruited largely from outside the country, seems to have focuses their attention on Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India; the indigenous Sunni insurrection attempting to restore Sunni predominance has largely died down while the U.S. taxpayer pays the insurgents hundreds of millions of dollars to rearm like the mujahadeen in Afghanistan under CIA tutelage; and the Shiite faction that dominates the government in Baghdad has, at least temporarily, been mastered by the Shiite militias challenging its authority by simply refusing to fight. After years of disappointment, we face the need to shift gears mentally to consider emerging prospects of success. We must not grow impatient like the Hunts and Richard Perle and rush to get a piece of Kurdish oil even as the Kurds provoke war with Turkey and Baghdad.
Of course, we can tell these changes are not permanent by simply gauging the extent to which, they reflect a decision by our adversaries, including Iran, to husband their forces for the aftermath of the Cheney administration where Cheney’s Energy task Force may have to reinvigorate its control of strategic policy if McCain is not elected.
If Obama doesn’t cooperate, industry has what’s known as domestic sanctions, witness Exxon Mobil kicking sand in America’s face with its $11 billion dollar quarterly profit. Even a dope like Brian Williams witnessed first hand the economic devastation in Iran and was sober enough to attribute the hardship to U.S. sponsored sanctions. The ‘downward harmonization’ of the U.S. economy as it’s standard of living more and more resembles that of a country in the developing world, has received several recent shots over its bow from Dick Cheney and the corporate interests who run the fist puppet show in Washington.
Did He Say ‘Environment?’ Kill Him Who Said That.
But we do know that the outcome of the conflict will determine the kind of oil environment in which the new administration will have to conduct its policies. Any appearance we create that radical Islamic forces were responsible for a U.S. defeat would have enormous destabilizing consequences far beyond the region much to our advantage. I mean that’s a great PR canard for going into anywhere. To fuckin’ bad Venezuela doesn’t have more fucking Muslims. How and when to leave Iraq will therefore not emerge as a principal decision for the new president because oil infrastructure including U.S. de facto control and Cheney’s cut will determine the timetable as it always has. If the oil timetable is not adhered too look for a spate of assassinations.
Whatever the interpretation of recent events, the local forces in Sunni part of Iraq has been paid handsomely backed by several Sunni states also on Uncle Sam’s payroll like the old Mujahedeen to fight al-Qaeda and indigenous insurgents. They’re isn’t much fighting as the Sunnis and al-Qaeda chow down and ream in the likely case Cheney has got his oil rigs and pipelines up and running and heavily protected by next January. The payments, in turn, have contributed to easing Sunni concerns over being marginalized by the Shiite majority which was getting all the U.S. project money and stealing what was left after the U.S. military and contractors got through gorging themselves. Occasionally, skirmishes would break out between the U.S. military, contractors and the Shia power brokers.
All along, the Kurdish region have acted like they were an independent state though their Marxist/Leninist insurgent forces harassing Turkey are considered a terrorist group on the U.S. terrorist watch list. Their ideology makes them a difficult pill for the Cheney administration to follow though apparently Richard Perle is not adverse to making a buck even if it means crawing in bed with COMMUNISTS.
In this manner, prospects for reconciliation among the three parts of the country, Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni, have appeared not through legislation, as congressional resolutions applying the American experience imagined, but by illusion of a measure of military and political equilibrium. Since the need for American forces in dealing with a massive insurrection has diminished, they can increasingly concentrate on the canard of helping the Iraqi government resist pressures from neighbors and the occasional flare-up of terrorist attacks from al-Qaeda or Iranian-backed militias a mission that would require a couple of police battalions if it wasn’t such a big fucking lie. In that environment, the various national and provincial elections foreseen for the next months in Iraq's constitution can help shape new Iraqi power pockets.
A strategic reserve can now be created by the United States out of some of the forces currently in Iraq, with some moving to other threatened areas and others returning to the United States except for Dick Cheney’s oil. American deployment is transformed by PR from cut and run into part of a geopolitical design. Its culmination should be more PR--a diplomatic conference charged with establishing a formal peace settlement like me and Le Duc Tho after the Vietnamese whipped us. Such a conference was first assembled two years ago on the foreign ministers' level. It was composed of all of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran and Syria; Egypt; and the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. That conference should be reassembled and charged with defining an international status for Iraq yet with guarantees that Cheney and his Energy Task Force will get their oil.
In addition, U.S. efforts to further destabilize the situation are underway. Turkey has shown a great deal of presumption by seeking to mediate between Israel and Syria; a Qatari initiative has achieved a temporary pause in the fighting in Lebanon that the U.S. working closely with Sarkosy of France hopes to soon undermine.
“Like With the Vietnamese, I know the Enemy Better than They Know Themselves.”
Establishing a deadline is the surest way to undermine the enormous profit taking currently under way in Iraq. It will also encourage rearming internal groups to stay underground until a world more congenial to their survival arises with the departure of American forces whose survival is less urgent. Al-Qaeda will have a deadline against which to plan a full-scale resumption of operations and as we’ve seen in the past al-Qaeda is a deadline oriented sort of an organization.
“We’re Gonna Cut and Run Anyway. Where's your sense of drama? Why Not Have Dramatic Helicopter Rescues from the Roof of the Embassy?”
And it will give Iran an unneeded incentive to strengthen its supporters in the Shiite community for the period after the American withdrawal making the effort to cut and run after the peace with honor bullshit phase much more difficult. Establishing a fixed deadline would also dissipate assets needed for the diplomatic endgame. In other words, we can’t withdraw ever. My recommendation to U.S. troops in Iraq, “Find your self a nice Iraqi girl. Settle down. When you’re sure U.S. warplanes won’t cut them to pieces, have a coupla kids.”
The inherent contradictions of the proposed withdrawal schedule ease the difficulties. Under the fixed withdrawal scheme, combat troops are to be withdrawn, but sufficient forces would remain to protect the U.S. Embassy, fight a resumption of al-Qaeda and contribute to defense against outside intervention. But I don’t give a shit what the Rand Corporation says such tasks require combat, not support, forces, and the foreseeable controversy about the elusive distinction will distract from the overall diplomatic goal of cutting and running anyway. Nor is withdrawal from Iraq necessary to free forces for operations in Afghanistan. The Pentagon has contracted iRobot Corp. to build a battalion of combat robots. In the meantime, we can further cut funding for education and raise the cost of living to force more and young idiots into the military or simply green screen northern Pakistan. There is no need to risk the effort in Iraq to send two or three additional brigades to Afghanistan; those troops will become available even in the absence of a deadline by simply raising the cost of gas, food, health care and education like Cheney and his fist puppet have done for the last 7 years. (It should be noted that I am a friend of Sen. John McCain and occasionally advise him.)
In a positive gesture, leading advocates of a fixed deadline, including Sen. Barack Obama, have recently put forward the idea that both withdrawal and the residual force will be condition-based on what big oil wants to do because without big oil you aren’t going to get your ass elected in the first placee. But if that is the case, why establish a deadline at all? Why not stay for ever and set up shot. It would suggest shifting the debate to the conditions for withdrawal rather than its timing. And the insurgency would lie in wait forever windering when we were going to leave so that could again strike.
These considerations explain Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's conduct on the occasion of Obama's visit to Iraq. Maliki is negotiating with the Cheney administration about a status-of-forces agreement for permanent bases to be maintained in Iraq now that they’ve already been built. Given popular attitudes and the imminence of provincial elections, he probably wanted to convey that the American presence though planned as a permanent occupation would soon come under renewed attack if his faction didn’t get more play. The accident of the arrival of a presidential candidate, who had already-published views on that subject, reinforced that incentive. To reject the senator's withdrawal plan in front of a large media contingent would have been to antagonize someone with whom Maliki might have to deal as president, the Iraqi people.
The American presence in Iraq should not be presented as open-ended even though its is; this would not be supported by either Iraqi or American domestic opinion as though either matters. But neither should it be put forward in terms of rigid deadlines that won’t be met if the oil is not firmly in the U.S. kleptocracy’s maw. Striking this balance is a way for our divided kleptocrats to come together as a constructive outcome emerges. Thirty years ago, Congress cut off aid to Vietnam and Cambodia two years after American troops had been withdrawn and local forces were still desperate to get the fuck out. Reality had overcome a presidency where the chief excecutive talked to oil paintings and the Secretary of State lied about a ‘secret plan’ to end the war. We must not repeat the peaceful outcome that followed and has now led to the U.S. kleptocracy including my very own Kissinger and Associates from going in and striking deals with the communist Vietnamese government while the families of 58,000 Americans get a sobering lesson in what it means to be fodder for the wealthy. I am supremely happy that I could teach so many fuckheads that lesson. And its equally reassuring to note than, one, so many Americans are stupid enough to ignore it, and, two, I’ve had this opportunity to contradict myself and state unequivocally that the imperial invasion of Southeast Asia and the invasion in Iraq do indeed have a great deal in common.
The next president has a great opportunity to destabilize Iraq clinging to the dreams of big oil and lay the basis for a decisive fiery return of Iraqi nationalism and for a more peaceful Middle East once the western invader is thrown out. Surely he will want to assess the situation on the ground before letting big oil set another brilliant strategy for his term like Cheney did for his. He should not be limited by rigid prescriptions to vindicate maxims of the past, no matter how plausible they once seemed. Withdrawal is a canard; the end is a more oil and cash in the pockets of a runaway kleptocracy whose nuts have become so big that to geld them would alter the tilt of the planet.
The writer was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977 and if there was a nano-scintilla of justice in the world would have been stillborn or hanged at the Hague 20 years ago.